Glicko test in 1vs1
I used the data from the 2017 tournament
I don't think it's really necessary to ask for permission, because the result are already available to everyone and it's only for test. It's not the data that will actually be used for the rating system.
I didn't want to redo the calculus, because I'm not as good as einstein for these kind of things. So I used this script.
I didn't compact series of games together as is recommended in the glicko2 paper. I actually calculated each map 1 by 1. It's not yet clear to me how to do otherwise. Anyone knows btw?
About the data, a few "problems" I had was that:
- Some players didn't play every match (they forfeited) --> no problem just don't change the rating at that time
- Missing data for round 4, 5 and 6 and had to deduce the score of each map from the general score --> minor nuisance, but maybe I made some mistakes
- Didn't remember how the last matches were played between kind of nowhere and nemesis so didn't included it in the dataset. Might explain the differences in the results
Constants used (recommended in the initial glicko2 paper):
- Starting rating: 1500
- Starting deviation: 350
- player volatility: 0.06
- Tau: 1.0 (completely arbitrary, cause I have no idea how to determine which value would best fit. It was by default in the script I used, so I sticked with it)
|king of nowhere
Non 1vs1 game
I was able to make first attempt to 2 vs 2 game problem with small calculations for 1 vs 2 problem too. Everything you can find in this file:
(also available on my site)
I don't know what to say, so happy you were able to do that. I really want to test these equations. You're totally right, it will easily be done by a computer!
I agree with your whole reasoning, though I haven't done math since so long, I can't comment your equations. Yes it's exponential and not linear, that's for sure.
Today I was able to expand a model a bit: now it covers calculating R and RD for all games with 2 teams only. New file available on my site:
I'm so hyped to test these too
Kind of Nowhere
i think the model would need experimental validation. You can't assign the value of how much difference is so much that the weaker player is virtually negligible, because that is different for every game, and cannot be calculated a priori.
Yes totally, we need A LOT of test. But the problem is. Currently, we have no data to test. And we have no data to test, because people don't play and then report their results (except during tournament). So integrating this system, even if using "false" assumptions, will give us enough data to make better equations. It's a first stage. And it's good to have some equations to help for this first stage.
What about the map the players took?
Yes, and yes hessenfarmer we totally should use these data for balance discussions. That would be super useful!